Good article, which makes me think so many different things.
1) With respect, as a Muslim, I must say that you have reached an inaccurate conclusion regarding the different sects in the Muslim world. Turkey is not Salafist country, but one steeped in Sufism; they are both conservative in their own way, but are otherwise quite different. For one, a Salafist would NEVER ally with a Shi'ite; ever. For another thing, Turks, even the religious ones, look down on Salafism as a intellectually deficient path to extremism.
2) I believe you are right about Russia's financial limitations vis a vis its massive geography. I wonder if Putin also agrees, because the deployments they've made are mostly in former Soviet territory, and relatively-small in scope; just enough to make in impact, but not overly much.
3) For me, this is about Turkey settling a score with Armenia. Erdogan has made some steps publicly towards normalizing relations with Armenia, but that doesn't mean he can't snub them indirectly.
4) Even if Turkey does leave NATO, that does not mean they will make war on it; that would just be silly. The only real places they have room for maneuver are the Caucasus and the Arab world.
5) I would be interested to see if Armenia ever tries to retake NKB. Perhaps they will do what Romania did with Moldovans and just offer a whole bunch of them citizenship.